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Stock picks, weekly newsletter, blog, and model stock portfolio resource for traders and investors to view and get stock ideas.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

12 month evaluation (quarter #4) YEAR 1 IS COMPLETE!

While the market took an obvious turn for the worst for people with long positions, we solidly outperformed the market and were able to eek out a gain for the quarter. Although generally we would consider this a success, it is clear that our performance was hampered by poor decisions and could have been far better. We look to improve greatly after finishing up this first great year!

Note to new parties: This is all starting from $100,000 and the S&P at 1455.11 on day one. You can see all of our trades on the excel spreadsheet on the model portfolio page.

Since inception GAIN/LOSS:

J Stock Portfolio: +39.78%
S & P 500: -11.70%

Quarter#4 (May 01, 2008 - August 05, 2008 )
J Stock Portfolio: Started $136430.50 / Ended $139775.50 | GAIN/LOSS: +2.45%
S & P 500: Started 1409.34 / Ended 1409.34 | GAIN/LOSS: -8.83%

Quarter#3 (February 02, 2008 - May 01, 2008)
J Stock Portfolio: Started $119,970.00 / Ended $136430.50 | GAIN/LOSS: +13.75%
S & P 500: Started 1395.42 / Ended 1409.34 | GAIN/LOSS: +1%

Quarter#2 (November 01, 2007- February 02, 2008)
J Stock Portfolio: Started $137,170.00 / Ended $119,970.00 | GAIN/LOSS: -12.54%
S & P 500: Started 1549.38 / Ended 1395.42 | GAIN/LOSS: -9.94%

Quarter#1 (August 08, 2007 - October 31, 2007)
J Stock Portfolio: Started $100,000.00 / Ended $137,107.00 | GAIN/LOSS: +37.11%
S & P 500: Started 1455.11 / Ended 1549.38 | GAIN/LOSS: +6.48%

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Thursday, May 1, 2008

9 month evaluation (quarter 3)

As you can see we have moved to a quarterly evaluation method as opposed to monthly. Just to make all things equal we have gone back and run the numbers and divided every month since our inception into quarters as well. Remember this is all starting from $100,000 and the S&P at 1455.11 on day one. You can see all of our trades on the excel spreadsheet on the model portfolio page.

Since inception GAIN/LOSS:

J Stock Portfolio: +36.43%
S & P 500: -3.15%

Quarter#3 (February 02, 2008 - May 01, 2008)
J Stock Portfolio: Started $119,970.00 / Ended $136430.50 | GAIN/LOSS: +13.75%
S & P 500: Started 1395.42 / Ended 1409.34 | GAIN/LOSS: +1%

Quarter#2 (November 01, 2007- February 02, 2008)
J Stock Portfolio: Started $137,170.00 / Ended $119,970.00 | GAIN/LOSS: -12.54%
S & P 500: Started 1549.38 / Ended 1395.42 | GAIN/LOSS: -9.94%

Quarter#1 (August 08, 2007 - October 31, 2007)
J Stock Portfolio: Started $100,000.00 / Ended $137,107.00 | GAIN/LOSS: +37.11%
S & P 500: Started 1455.11 / Ended 1549.38 | GAIN/LOSS: +6.48%

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Saturday, February 2, 2008

6 Month Evaluation

A horrid start to the market this year left our portfolio with our 2nd losing month. On January 1st the S&P 500 opened at 1467.97 and closed at 1395.42 on February 2nd for a return of -4.94% loss. The The J Stock Portfolio began the month with $127,670.00 in assets (stocks and cash) and ended the period with $119970.00 for a loss of 6.03%. While the portfolio lost for the 2nd time in the monthly comparison to S & P 500 performance , we are optimistic going into the next period as we plan to thin our the portfolio and take new positions in companies we have identified that have explosive potential. We also have built a sizable cushioned lead over the S&P 500 over the past 6 months and plan to extend that gain this month


MONTHLY SCOREBOARD
J Stock Report:4
S&P 500: 2

GAINS SINCE PORTFOLIO INCEPTION (8/1/2007)
J Stock Report: +19.97%
S&P 500: -4.10%

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Monday, December 31, 2007

5 Month Evaluation

December was a great rebound for the model portfolio. On December 1st the S&P 500 opened at 1479.63 and closed at 1468.36 on December 31st for a return of -0.76 % loss. The The J Stock Portfolio began the month with $115,598.00 in assets (stocks and cash) and ended the month with $127,670.00 for a gain of 10.44%. While the portfolio clearly beat the S & P 500 performance easily, we are remaining cautious to not have another repeat of our only losing month (last month).

Lessons Learned/Game Plan:

1. Take full profit on stocks that have moved up large, regardless of the portfolio + or - , we can always reenter at another time. (Selling ELON for small loss after large recovery move it had)

2. Some of our portfolio stocks were effected by tax selling and should rebound from that early in the month. We will likely use this strength to exit stocks that are not meeting expectations.

MONTHLY SCOREBOARD
J Stock Report:4
S&P 500: 1

GAINS SINCE PORTFOLIO INCEPTION (8/1/2007)
J Stock Report: +27.67%
S&P 500: +0.69%

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Friday, December 21, 2007

4 Month Evaluation

This was a bad month the portfolio. This evaluation is late due to the planning of a new site format. As of (November 1st), the S&P 500 gapped down 1545.79 and as of the close on (November 30th) the S&P 500 was at 1481.14 for a loss of 4.18% (if you call that a real gain) . The J Stock Portfolio assets began this period with $137107.00 in assets (stocks and cash) and ended the period with $115598.00 for a loss of the month of 15.79%. This has easily been our first negative month (so far) and will be used as a lesson in what NOT to do in the future during a market where bidders on smaller cap stocks fail to show up. The S&P 500 was horrible, but our portfolio was worse and here are some of the lessons learned.

1. More partial profit taking was a good idea but more liberal profit stops are needed to keep the gains we have .
2. Better timing around earnings and major upcoming events to eliminate 'surprise' gaps

MONTHLY SCOREBOARD

J Stock Report: 3
S&P 500: 1

STOCK PORTFOLIO GAINS SINCE INCEPTION (8/1/2007)

J Stock Report: 15.60%
S&P 500: 1.79%

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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

3 month evaluation

This was a big month the porfolio. Some larger percentage gains and better winning ratio helped put this months performance far out of the reach of the paltry S&P 500 . At the beginning of this evaluation month (October 1st), the S&P 500 was at 1547.07 and as of the close today (October 31st) the S&P 500 was at 1549.38 for a gain of .15% (if you call that a real gain) . The J Stock Portfolio assets began this period with $117115.00 in assets (stocks and cash) and ended the period with $137107.00 for a gain of the month of +17.07%. This has easily been our most productive month (so far) and will be our benchmark to beat as we consistently try to improve our performance each month. Again we easily out performed the S&P 500 and some of the things we are setting as things to improve:
1. More partial profit taking on stocks to lock in gains .
2. Continual stock entry improvement to minimize 'dead time' where a we own a stock that is not moving.

MONTHLY SCOREBOARD

J Stock Report: 3
S&P 500: 0

STOCK PORTFOLIO GAINS SINCE INCEPTION (8/1/2007)

J Stock Report: 37.10%
S&P 500: 6.48%

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Monday, October 1, 2007

2 Month Evaulation

This month the S&P was sure to give J Stock Report a run for its' money after a large Fed rate cut. At the beginning of this evaluation month (September 4th), the S&P 500 was at 1489.42 and as of the close today (October 1st) the S&P 500 was at 1547.07 for a gain of 3.87% . The J Stock Portfolio assets began this period with $109228.00 in assets (stocks and cash) and ended the period with $117115.00 for a gain of the month of +7.22%. Again we easily out performed the benchmark index but alas we are still not pleased with a few of the losers in the portfolio and see a clear opportunity to improve on this performance.

MONTHLY SCOREBOARD
S&P 500: 0 Publish Post
J Stock Report: 2

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Tuesday, September 4, 2007

1 Month Evaluation

After a great time of volatility in the market it is time to do the monthly evaluation. At the beginning of this month and the start of the J Stock Report Model Portfolio, the S&P 500 opened at 1455.11. As of todays close, the S & P stood at 1489.42 for a gain of 2.36% for the month . The Model Portfolio began with $100,000.00 and ended with $109228.00 for a gain of 9.23%. On the face it, it would seem that we blew the Standard and Poors Index to smithereens. In truthfully t Waking a hard line on our performance, it was clear that we let a few speculative names go down further than necessary and that dampened our own potential gains for the month. Some of these names not only broke below our initial danger area, they also were slow to rebound with the larger market. The key takeaway from this month is to sell the losers early and pick better entries. We will be looking for more opportunities throughout the market in the coming week so we can try to keep this streak going. Congratulations to our members and good luck in September!

MONTHLY SCOREBOARD

S&P 500: 0
J Stock Report: 1

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